Critswatch - Advanced Crit Tracking for Abilites and Spells
An addon for tracking and analyzing critical strike performance across all spells and abilities.
I wasn't convinced the critical strike chance my character sheet was showing was accurate so I built this addon to try prove it.
Originally this was for Fire Mage but I'm happy now with the base and have expanded it to all classes and spells which the addon will discover as you use each one.
How It Works
Critswatch monitors your combat log and tracks the last 5000 ability or spell hits. It calculates:
Your actual crit rate from observed data
Your expected crit rate from character stats + talents
Statistical analysis to determine if your crits match RNG expectations
Streak tracking to show "crit drought" likelihood
The "Next Crit %" uses probability theory: If you have 30% crit chance and haven't crit in 10 casts, the probability that you *should have* seen at least one crit is calculated, giving you the "Next Crit %" chance stat.
Tracked Abilites
Abilites and spells are auto discovered through the combat log. When you first use it, it should appear in the list.
At the moment you will see a few random abilities appear that are part of certain quests. I will be adding an option to remove them or exclude any you don't want to track in the next update.
Features
Multiple Tracking Tabs
All Time Tab : Persistent stats that save across sessions
Hits: Total number of spell casts
Crits: Total number of critical hits
Sheet %: Your character sheet crit chance (including talents)
Actual %: Your observed crit rate from actual casts
Next Crit %: Statistical likelihood you're "due" for a crit based on your streak
Session Tab - Resets every time you log in
- Same columns as All Time tab
- Useful for tracking performance during a single play session
Targets Tab - Breakdown by target type (persists across sessions)
Boss: Hit counts against boss mobs (colored red)
Elite: Hit counts against elite mobs (colored yellow)
Normal: Hit counts against normal mobs (colored grey)
Total %: Overall crit rate across all target types with total hits/crits
Accuracy Stats (Expandable Section)
Click the "[+] Accuracy Stats" toggle to expand detailed statistical analysis:
Weighted Exp: Weighted expected crit rate based on your actual character stats at each cast
Deviation: How far your actual crit rate deviates from expected (lower is better)
- Green: ≤2% deviation (excellent)
- Yellow: 2-5% deviation (good)
- Red: >5% deviation (needs more data or unlucky)
Score: Overall accuracy score (0-100)
- Green: ≥95 (excellent match to expected)
- Light Green: 85-94 (very good)
- Yellow: 70-84 (acceptable)
- Red: <70 (more variance than expected)
Prediction: Hit rate for crit predictions
Confidence: 95% confidence interval for your true crit rate
Talent Detection
Automatically detects and applies talents (or at least it should!)
examples for mages:
Arcane Instability: +1% crit per rank to all spells
Incineration: +2% crit per rank to Fire Blast and Scorch
Pyromaniac: +5% crit per rank to Fire Blast
Critical Mass: +2% crit per rank to all fire spells
Themed
Multiple color themes available (1-5):
1. Dark Blue
2. Bright Gold
3. Mystic Purple - Deep purple/pink theme
4. Frost Aqua- Bright cyan/aqua theme
5. Transparent - Minimal transparent overlay
Slash Commands
Basic Commands:
`/crits` or `/critswatch` - Toggle main window
`/crits <number>` - Change theme (quick: just type `/crits 1`, `/crits 2`, etc.)
`/crits scale <0.5-2.0>` - Adjust window scale
`/crits reset` - Reset all tracked data
`/crits calibrate` - Run statistical calibration on your data
**Examples:**
```
/crits 2 - sets the 2nd theme
/crits scale 1.2 - scales the window size
/crits calibrate - calibrates the collected stats vs RNG to try make the prediction collumns more accurate over time
```
Color Codes
Spell Names:
- Orange: Fire spells
- Cyan: Frost spells
Actual Crit Rate:
- Green: Above expected crit rate (lucky!)
- Orange: Around expected crit rate (normal)
- Red: Below expected crit rate (unlucky)
Next Crit Likelihood:
- Green: >80% (very due for a crit)
- Yellow: 50-80% (moderately due)
- Orange: 30-50% (slightly due)
- Grey: <30% (not particularly due)
Data Persistence
All Time tab data persists forever (until you manually reset)
Session tab resets every login
Targets tab persists across sessions
- Cast log stores up to 5,000 recent casts for statistical analysis
- Window position, scale, and theme preferences are saved
Notes
The addon needs meaningful sample sizes (50+ casts) for accurate statistical analysis
Calibration helps account for any systematic differences between your sheet crit and actual RNG
Target type tracking helps identify if certain boss encounters affect your performance
Use Session tab to measure performance during raids or specific farming sessions
