CredibleLoot — Overview

A WoW Classic: The Burning Crusade addon that swaps Questie's point-estimate drop rates for a range your own loot data supports. Requires Questie (hard dependency; the client refuses to load CredibleLoot without it).

What changes on your screen

Questie's tooltip for a quest mob:

4/8 Gnoll Paw  [45%]

That 45% comes from static databases. CredibleLoot shows what your own kills say:

4/8 Gnoll Paw  [22%-63% | 10 loots, 4 drops]

The 22%-63% is a 90% bayesian credible interval for the true drop rate, built from your observations plus Questie's rate as prior knowledge. 10 loots, 4 dropsis your sample size. Early on the interval hugs Questie's estimate. Kill more of the mob and it tightens around what you actually saw.

How counting works

• A trial = your group kills a tracked mob, even if the corpse is empty or you skip looting it
• A success = the quest item drops from that kill
• Each corpse buffers to a single trial no matter how many events or items it produces
• Loot the quest item from a corpse whose trial was already saved (within5 minutes) and the addon upgrades that trial to a success; looting other items leaves the trial as a failure
• Kills count only while the quest sits in your log
• Party members' kills count as trials (combat log affiliation flags credit you, your pets, and your group)
• Party members' loot counts as successes (attributed via their current target when the loot chat message arrives)
• Counts are account-wide, shared across all characters

Controls

• Sensitivity sets prior strength: High (n=2, trusts your data sooner),Medium (n=5, default), Low (n=10, trusts Questie's rate longer)
• Min loots (1–10, default 5) gates when intervals appear; below the threshold Questie's line stays untouched
• /credibleloot slash commands: status, sensitivity, minloots, enable,debug, options, reset
• Options panel with the same settings plus a reset button

The addon stores raw {s, t} counts only and computes priors and intervals at display time, so changing any setting updates every tooltip without touching stored data.